A LOW-PRESSURE area (LPA) east of the Philippines remains outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) but is approaching its eastern boundary. As of 8 a.m. Wednesday, it was located 1,190 km east of Southeastern Luzon.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), there is a high probability that the LPA will develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours and may enter PAR today as an LPA or tropical depression, which will be given the local name “Wilma.”
It may reach tropical storm intensity while traversing the Philippine Sea, but the strong surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will hinder its intensification and push it southwestward.
Wilma may make landfall over Eastern Visayas-Caraga on Saturday or Sunday and cross Southern Luzon-Visayas on Monday or Tuesday.
Starting Thursday, its trough may affect Bicol and Eastern Visayas, and wind signals may be raised. Heavy rainfall is expected along its path, and the eastern part of Northern and Central Luzon may also be affected by enhanced shear line rains, potentially causing flooding and landslides.
“Uncertainty in the intensity and track forecasts remains high, so the public is advised to continue monitoring updates on this potential tropical cyclone,” PAGASA said.
Currently, no part of the country is affected by the LPA. The Amihan will persist over most of Luzon, bringing light rain to parts of Cordillera, Cagayan Valley, and Aurora, while scattered thunderstorms are possible over eastern Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago.
