ECONOMIST Michael Ricafort expects the inflation rate in December 2024 to reach 2.6%, aligning with the government’s target range of 2% to 4%. This projection is attributed to the decline in rice prices and a global decrease in commodity prices.
Rice, which accounts for 9% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket, has seen a price reduction following the implementation of Executive Order (EO) 62. Signed by President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., the EO reduced tariffs on imported rice from 35% to 15%, leading to a significant decrease in rice inflation—from 22.5% in June to 5.1% in November.
Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., also noted the decline in global crude oil and other key commodity prices, driven by weaker economic data from China. These factors contribute to a relatively benign inflation outlook both domestically and internationally.
However, Ricafort cautioned that seasonal demand increases during the Christmas season could slightly elevate prices. Despite this, he expects inflation to stabilize around the 2% level until early 2025, remaining within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ target range.
The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the official December inflation data in the first week of January 2025.
