THE Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon Falcon will bring occasional to monsoon rains over the western portion of Luzon in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #20 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today.
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and raininduced landslides remains highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
Severe Winds
Due to the very expansive wind field of the typhoon, the hoisting of Wind Signal due to FALCON over Batanes is no longer ruled out. In such a case, the highest level that may be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 1. Furthermore, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring also gusty conditions over the following areas, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
Today: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Abra, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, the central and southern portions of Aurora, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, and most of Ilocos Region, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas
Tomorrow: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, the western portion of Northern Samar, and most of Cordillera Administrative Region and Western Visayas
Thursday: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, and Western Visayas
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by FALCON will bring moderate to rough seas over the coastal waters along the northern (1.25 to 2.5 m), western (1.5 to 3.0 m) and southern (1.5 to 2.5 m) seaboards of Luzon. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
FALCON is forecast track west northwestward and begin decelerating as it approaches the waters southeast of Okinawa Islands. On the track forecast, the typhoon may exit the PAR region this afternoon or evening. Afterward, the typhoon will pass south of Okinawa Islands between tonight and tomorrow morning. A period of slow movement may occur by Thursday over the East China Sea
FALCON is potentially at its peak intensity at this time and likely to maintain its strength for the next 48 hours, although intensification into a super typhoon is not ruled out. A period of weakening may begin late tomorrow or on early Thursday as it enters the cooler waters of the East China Sea and as upwelling of deep ocean waters resulting from its slowdown limits further development.
