SATURDAY evening through Sunday morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains possible over Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, and Batangas. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains possible over mainland Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of Central Luzon.
Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Ilocos Region, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Romblon, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands.
• Under these conditions, widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
Severe Winds
• Winds may reach gale-force strength during the passage of PAENG within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted, while strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) may be experienced within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 is in effect.
• Per latest track and intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will likely be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 3 in anticipation of storm-force conditions associated with PAENG.
• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced by PAENG will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Apayao.
Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Bicol Region, Marinduque, the eastern portion of Batangas, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Aurora, Northern Samar, and the northern portion of Eastern Samar. For more information refer to Storm Surge Watch #3 issued at 8:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and PAENG, a marine gale warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #11 issued at 5:00 PM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to continue moving west northwestward through Sunday. On the forecast track the center of PAENG may make landfall in the vicinity of Albay-Camarines Sur area or Catanduanes tonight or tomorrow early morning. Afterwards, the storm will traverse Bicol Peninsula until tomorrow early afternoon before crossing the CALABARZON-Metro Manila area tomorrow early afternoon through evening. After emerging over Manila Bay, PAENG will briefly pass very close or over the Bataan Peninsula between tomorrow late evening and Sunday early morning.
• The track forecast may still shift slightly northward or southward in the succeeding bulletins.
• PAENG may still intensify into a severe tropical storm category prior to its landfall over Bicol Peninsula. Frictional effects associated with interaction with the Luzon landmass may result in weakening into a tropical storm during or after its passage over Luzon.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
THE center of Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar over the coastal waters of Rapu-Rapu, Albay (13.2°N, 124.6°E), according to weather bulletin on Friday at 10pm.
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa
Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to continue moving west northwestward through Sunday. On the forecast track the center of PAENG may make landfall in the vicinity of Albay-Camarines Sur area or Catanduanes tonight or tomorrow early morning. Afterwards, the storm will traverse Bicol Peninsula until tomorrow early afternoon before crossing the CALABARZON-Metro Manila area tomorrow early afternoon through evening. After emerging over Manila Bay, PAENG will briefly pass very close or over the Bataan Peninsula between tomorrow late evening and Sunday early morning.
• The track forecast may still shift slightly northward or southward in the succeeding bulletins.
• PAENG may still intensify into a severe tropical storm category prior to its landfall over Bicol Peninsula. Frictional effects associated with interaction with the Luzon landmass may result in weakening into a tropical storm during or after its passage over Luzon.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
