THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has been continuously monitoring the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific.
The final La Niña advisory was issued last March 10, 2023 with ENSO – neutral conditions now present. However, based on recent conditions and model forecasts, El Niño will likely develop in Jul-Aug-Sept (JAS) 2023 season and may persist until 2024. With this development, the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is now raised to El Niño Watch.
El Niño (warm phase of ENSO) is characterized by unusually warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). When conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next six months and the probability is 55% or more, an El Niño Watch is issued.
El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country. However, over the western part of the country, above-normal rainfall conditions during the Southwest monsoon season (Habagat) may also be expected.
Pagasa will continue to closely monitor the development of this ENSO phenomenon. All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impending impacts of El Niño.
