The center of Severe Tropical Storm LEON was estimated based on all available data at 735 km East of Casiguran, Aurora or 780 km East of Echague, Isabela (16.8°N, 129.0°E)
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
• Present Movement
Westward at 20 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 680 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
• TCWS No. 1 Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
-Luzon
Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Natonin, Paracelis), the eastern portion of Ifugao (Aguinaldo, Alfonso Lista), the eastern portion of Quirino (Maddela), the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan), and the northern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 1 for the Heavy Rainfall Outlook associated with Severe Tropical Storm LEON.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of LEON is Wind Signal No. 3 or 4, especially in Extreme Northern Luzon.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of Severe Tropical Storm LEON will also bring gusty conditions (strong to gale-force) over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today (28 October): Batangas, most of MIMAROPA, most of Bicol Region, Visayas, most of Northern Mindanao, and most of Caraga Region.
• Tomorrow (29 October): Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Camiguin.
• Wednesday (30 October): Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and Northern Samar.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning will be hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon this afternoon.
24-Hour Sea Condition Forecast
Up to very rough seas:
• Up to 5.5 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands
• Up to 5.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
• Sea travel is risky all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas:
• Up to 4.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte
• Up to 3.5 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the northern seaboards of Camarines Norte and Camarines Sur.
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboard of Aurora; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of Ilocos Sur; the eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Eastern Samar, and Dinagat Islands
• Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of the country.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• LEON is forecast to move west northwestward today through tomorrow (29 October) morning, then turn northwestward until it makes landfall along the eastern coast of Taiwan on Thursday (31 October) evening or Friday (1 November) early morning. After crossing the landmass of Taiwan, LEON will then turn to the northeast towards the East China Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday morning or afternoon.
• There is an increasing possibility of further westward shift in the track forecast of LEON but within the limits of the forecast confidence cone. As such, a landfall or close approach scenario on Batanes is not ruled out.
• This tropical cyclone is expected to rapidly intensify throughout its passage over the Philippine Sea and may reach typhoon category within 24 hours. Furthermore, there is an increasing chance that LEON will reach super typhoon category during its period of closest approach to Batanes.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
