THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) forecasts that one to two tropical cyclones may develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this month.
According to weather specialist Leanne Loreto, based on historical data, storms occurring in May typically recurve and do not make landfall in the country.
However, she noted that some systems may still pass through the central part of the archipelago before changing direction and exiting the country’s area of jurisdiction. Should any storm form, the next names on the 2026 list will be Caloy and Domeng.
The agency also warned that hot and dry conditions are likely to continue through the first half of May. Temperature readings could climb as high as 40.8°C in Northern Luzon, 40.0°C in Central Luzon, and up to 38.1°C in Metro Manila.
The highest temperature recorded so far during this dry season was registered at 39.3°C in Camiling, Tarlac last April 28. In terms of rainfall, Metro Manila and parts of Northern and Central Luzon may experience below-normal precipitation ranging from 20% to 40% less than the average. In contrast, several areas in the Visayas and Mindanao are expected to receive above-normal rainfall amounts.
Pagasa further reported that 15 provinces in Northern and Central Luzon are already experiencing drought conditions due to a more than 60% decrease in rainfall over the past three months.
Adding to climate concerns, the bureau has issued an El Niño alert, noting an approximately 80% probability of the weather phenomenon developing between June and August 2026 — with a possibility it could emerge even earlier. In its early stages, El Niño is projected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring heavy rains to the western sections of the country, but by September, it is expected to result in drier weather patterns across most regions.
Authorities also issued an important reminder: while the total number of typhoons entering the PAR may decrease in the coming months, the cyclones that do occur are likely to become more intense. PAGASA urged the public and concerned agencies to remain vigilant, prepare for extreme heat, conserve water, and stay updated on weather developments as the country transitions seasons amid changing climate patterns.
