THE latest survey results from OCTA Research reveal a shifting landscape in early voter preferences for the 2028 presidential elections, showing a decline in support for Vice President Sara Duterte while former Vice President and now Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo posts a remarkable rise.
Released on Friday, the first quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey recorded Duterte’s preference rating at 33%, dropping five percentage points from the 38% she garnered in the final quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, Robredo saw her share climb steeply to 21% from just 8% previously, marking a 13-point jump—the biggest gain registered among all those included in the poll.
According to the research group, the gap between the two leading figures has significantly narrowed, shifting from a 30-point lead held by Duterte in earlier findings to only 12 points in the latest results.
This notable reduction underscores what OCTA described as a “more competitive preference landscape,” suggesting that voter choices are becoming more varied and the race is growing tighter as the political horizon draws nearer. The movement in their ratings reflects contrasting trends: while Duterte’s base appears to have softened, Robredo has clearly gained considerable ground among respondents across the country.
Following the top two contenders are other prominent figures with mixed changes in their standing. Manila Mayor Isko Moreno saw a slight improvement, moving up to 10% from 8% in the prior period.
In contrast, Senator Raffy Tulfo experienced a decline, falling to 9% from his earlier rating of 12%. Senator Bam Aquino held steady with 4%, maintaining the same level of support recorded previously. Only a small fraction of those surveyed expressed uncertainty or declined to answer, with 2% saying they are undecided and 1% refusing to state their preference.
OCTA Research also noted that a significant portion of respondents—20%—expressed support for other personalities not listed among the top choices, indicating that voter preferences outside the leading candidates remain widely scattered and not yet consolidated.
Conducted from March 19 to 25, the survey involved face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult participants across the country. It carries a margin of error of ±3% at a 95% confidence level for national results, while margins of error for specific regions including the National Capital Region, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao stand at ±6%, also at a 95% confidence level.
