A POLITICAL science professor at the University of the Philippines said Saturday that the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Z. Duterte goes beyond a constitutional procedure and could serve as a defining civic moment that may either strengthen or weaken public confidence in the country’s justice system.
During the Saturday News Forum at Dapo Restaurant in Quezon City, UP Assistant Professor and OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye described the upcoming Senate trial as an event that will shape how ordinary Filipinos perceive accountability and democratic institutions.
“If this is done right, this is going to be an educational experience apart from being a political process, a constitutional process for the everyday Filipino,” Rye said.
“It will show the majesty of the political process in both the Senate and the House and it will imprint in the everyday Filipino of this generation,” he added.
He said the trial carries particular weight because many Filipinos already harbor skepticism about whether justice is applied equally, and the proceedings could either reinforce or help reduce that perception.
“‘Ah, mayroon palang accountability, may pananagutan pala. Hindi pala totoo.’ Although marami naniniwala na hindi pantay-pantay ang hustisya sa ating bayan,” Rye said.
“So ito, monumental process ito, historic process ito,” he added.
For the trial to fulfill that promise, Rye said senator-judges must exercise neutrality and professionalism in handling the case, noting that the country’s shifting political environment makes it less likely for decisions to be driven by alignment with a dominant political bloc.
Citing OCTA Research’s latest surveys on the hypothetical 2028 presidential race, he explained that the political landscape has become more fluid, with no single group maintaining clear dominance. He said this should reduce political pressure on senator-judges and allow them to focus on evidence-based deliberation.
“When you look at the latest OCTA surveys on the 2028 presidential race, hypothetical, nag-iiba na ‘yung bansa. Hindi na siya dapat magiging basis for deciding who should you support in the impeachment because the country is changing already. It’s changed. Hindi na dominant ang isang group, that’s what the survey is basically saying,” he said.
He also pointed out that in just one quarter, former Vice President Leni Robredo saw a more than 20-percentage-point increase in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup against Duterte, narrowing what was previously a wide lead to a gap of around eight to twelve percentage points.
More strikingly, Rye said a Robredo–Sen. Raffy Tulfo tandem has overtaken the Duterte–Sen. Imee Marcos pairing in OCTA’s hypothetical election surveys. In the poll firm’s May release, OCTA found that 44% of respondents would vote for Robredo as president and Tulfo as vice president, while 40% preferred Duterte and Marcos.
“Ngayon ho, for the first time, may nakatalo sa hypothetical and that is the Leni Robredo-Raffy Tulfo tandem which was only ahead by four percentage points,” he said.
Rye said this shift reflects a changing political environment that reduces incentives for senator-judges to vote based on perceived political consequences.
“Taking one side because of politics actually might be a detriment to them long term because the country is moving in a different direction already,” he said.
“I think their role here, the more neutral and professional they are here, the more everyday Filipinos will appreciate their contribution to this ongoing process, whatever the outcome is—whether it’s convict or not,” he added.
While 87% of Filipinos are aware of the impeachment proceedings, Rye also said many still do not fully understand the specific allegations and evidence against the vice president. He said the trial could help improve public understanding of the case.
“Sana kung matuloy sa Senado ‘to, mas magkakaroon ng clarity ang ating kababayan on the issue,” he said.
For the political scientist, the vice president’s impeachment trial will serve as a test of democratic institutions, particularly in how they handle accountability cases involving high-ranking officials.
“But ultimately, it’s not just a popularity issue, it’s not just an issue of public opinion. It’s also a legal constitutional issue,” he said.
He added that beyond the outcome of the trial, what matters most for Filipinos is whether the proceedings reinforce public confidence in the fairness and integrity of constitutional processes.
