HOUSE Assistant Majority Leader Zia Alonto Adiong of Lanao del Sur on Wednesday said the latest OCTA Research survey suggests emerging challenges to Vice President Sara Z. Duterte’s national standing, particularly amid continuing questions on accountability issues.
Alonto Adiong said the Q1 2026 Tugon ng Masa survey, which showed the hypothetical tandem of Leni Robredo and Raffy Tulfo ahead of the Sara Duterte–Imee Marcos pairing in a possible 2028 matchup, reflects growing public scrutiny over unresolved issues confronting the vice president.
“Tinamaan na si Sara. Ayaw kasi humarap. Panay tago, panay press conference, panay atake sa proseso. Kapag ang ebidensya ay hindi sinasagot sa tamang forum, ang publiko mismo ang magsisimulang magtanong kung bakit takot humarap,” Alonto Adiong, who chairs the House Committee on Suffrage and Electoral Reforms, said.
According to OCTA Research, the Robredo–Tulfo tandem registered 44 percent support nationwide, ahead of the Duterte–Marcos tandem at 40 percent, while 16 percent remained undecided. OCTA described the result as a “narrow national lead” and said it reflected “a significantly more competitive tandem landscape entering 2026.”
The survey was conducted nationwide from March 19 to 25, 2026 through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above selected through probability sampling. It carried a ±3 percent national margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.
OCTA also said subnational estimates for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao had ±6 percent margins of error at the same confidence level. The pollster stressed that the findings were an “early-stage hypothetical vote-intention measure” and should be viewed only as a “snapshot of current public sentiment, not as a prediction of electoral outcomes.”
Alonto Adiong acknowledged OCTA’s cautionary note but said the results still carry political significance.
“Hindi ito prediction, pero malinaw itong senyales. Kung dati malayo ang lamang ng Duterte–Marcos alignment, tapos ngayon nauunahan na sila, may nangyari. Ang nangyari: sumisigaw ang ebidensya, pero ang kampo ni VP Sara, panay iwas,” Alonto Adiong said.
The OCTA report noted that this was the “first recorded instance in OCTA’s comparable TNM tandem match-up surveys” where a Robredo-led tandem numerically surpassed a Duterte–Marcos alignment in a direct hypothetical preference test. It added that commissioned Tugon ng Masa surveys over the past year generally showed Duterte–Marcos leading by around 15 to 25 percentage points.
Alonto Adiong linked the shift to the impeachment allegations faced by Duterte involving alleged misuse of public funds, unexplained wealth, bribery, and threats against President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and former Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez. He also cited the House vote of 257-25, with nine abstentions, to impeach Duterte and transmit the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate for trial.
He said the same accountability concerns appeared reflected in the House vote, where support for the Articles of Impeachment exceeded the one-third constitutional requirement.
“Pareho ang mensahe ng House vote at ng survey: hindi na sapat ang apelyido, hindi na sapat ang ingay, hindi na sapat ang makinarya. Kapag ang tanong ay accountability, kailangan mong humarap at sumagot,” Alonto Adiong said.
The regional breakdown also pointed to a polarized but increasingly competitive political landscape. OCTA reported Robredo–Tulfo leading in NCR with 61 percent, Balance Luzon with 57 percent, and the Visayas with 48 percent. Duterte–Marcos, meanwhile, posted dominant support in Mindanao with 86 percent, while obtaining 23 percent each in NCR and Balance Luzon, and 40 percent in the Visayas.
Alonto Adiong, a Mindanao lawmaker, said the figures indicate that Duterte’s Mindanao support base remains solid, but national concerns have become more pronounced.
“Malakas pa rin siya sa Mindanao, pero hindi pwedeng Mindanao lang ang sagot sa national accountability. Kung ang usapin ay confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery, at threats against top officials, buong Pilipinas ang may karapatang magtanong,” Alonto Adiong said.
He added that the Visayas numbers were particularly notable, with OCTA itself identifying the region as strategically contested after Robredo–Tulfo posted 48 percent support against Duterte–Marcos’ 40 percent. OCTA also described Balance Luzon as critical because of its electoral weight.
Alonto Adiong said this mirrored the geographic spread of support during the impeachment vote, noting that support for impeachment extended beyond Luzon. He earlier pointed out that 43 of 50 lawmakers from the Visayas and 41 of 61 lawmakers from Mindanao voted in favor of impeachment, countering claims that the proceedings were driven solely by “Imperial Manila.”
“Hindi na ito Luzon issue. Hindi na ito Manila issue. Kapag pati Visayas at Mindanao lawmakers ay bumoboto para sa impeachment, ibig sabihin seryoso ang tanong ng bayan: nasaan ang paliwanag?” Alonto Adiong said.
By socioeconomic class, OCTA found Robredo–Tulfo strongest among Class D respondents at 47 percent, followed by Class E at 36 percent and Class ABC at 35 percent. Duterte–Marcos posted their highest support among Class E respondents at 51 percent, followed by Class D at 39 percent and Class ABC at 37 percent. Among Class ABC respondents, 25 percent remained undecided. Nationwide, undecided respondents accounted for 16 percent, or more than one in seven adult Filipinos.
Alonto Adiong said the undecided segment could become crucial because it suggests many voters are still waiting for direct answers rather than attacks on the process.
“Yung undecided, hindi blank space iyan. Iyan ang mga botanteng naghihintay ng paliwanag, ebidensya, at tapang na humarap. Kung ang sagot mo pa rin ay tago, atake, at ad hominem, lalo mong itinutulak ang publiko palayo,” Alonto Adiong said.
He stressed that Duterte still has the opportunity to respond through the constitutional process of a Senate impeachment trial.
“Kung mali ang ebidensya, ilabas ang counterevidence. Kung may paliwanag, sabihin sa ilalim ng oath. Kung may depensa, iharap sa Senado. Pero kung ang gagawin lang ay magtago at sabihing lahat ng pumupuna ay bayaran, lalo lang nilang pinatutunayan na takot silang humarap sa rekord,” Alonto Adiong said.
“The Constitution is alive and well only when powerful officials are made to answer. Hindi ito laban ng kulay o rehiyon. Laban ito ng ebidensya kontra palusot, accountability kontra impunity, at oath kontra no-show,” Alonto Adiong added.
