Family preparedness has been a long-established welfare principle.
— American farmer and religious leader Ezra Taft Benson
United States President Donald Trump is leading a war against Iran that has disrupted global oil supply, and though he deems the conflict as necessary, it is hurting more countries than benefitting from it.
Sad to say, war is profiting the warmongers in the mainland USA and it appears the attacks of the American military are a show of force that hints at Trump’s egomaniacal desire to reinstate America as the most powerful country in the world.
However, the People’s Republic of China (PRoC) can argue this as untrue since the Chinese has already outstripped the US as number one in arms dealing, and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) can now rival the US naval forces in terms of number of warships and firepower.
But going back to the ongoing petroleum supply disruption is likely to be more destabilizing than the most recent externally caused crisis we’ve experienced during the worst months of the Covid-19 pandemic, which slowed down economic activity because of the deliberate restriction of movement to stop the contagion.
Yet, physical supply systems of the economy remained intact. Trade continued as imports still arrived at ports, trucks still transported food, power plants continued generating electricity, and fuel remained available at gasoline stations. The crisis was primarily a public-health emergency that spilled into the economy, not a breakdown of the economic machinery itself.
So we realize that the fuel exhaustion we are experiencing now is far different, as it strikes directly at the mechanical foundations of our economy. Covid had a more severe impact on transportation. Even when lockdowns were strict, trucks carrying food and goods continued operating and public transport services eventually resumed after a few weeks of strict lockdown.
The current fuel shortages is immobilizing transportation. Without diesel, trucks cannot move goods from ports and farms to markets. Cargo ships moving between islands cannot sail. Buses and jeepneys stop operating regardless of whether people need to travel or not.
In an archipelagic country like ours, that is a fundamental vulnerability. Movement between the islands depends heavily on fuel-powered transport.
The food supply chain is now more fragile than it was during the fuel crisis. The issue here is not policy like during the pandemic but physics because transportation is lessened. While food may still exist in farms and ports, it cannot easily reach the cities.
Finally, the electricity system is now facing greater risks, and as much as our power supply comes from coal and natural gas, diesel still plays an essential role in backup generators and in electricity generation on smaller islands. We must remember that our telecommunications systems, commercial facilities and most importantly our hospitals rely heavily on diesel generators during power interruptions, and if diesel runs out, these safety buffers will disappear.
However, what mist of us are presently feeling now is inflationary pressure. Fuel costs ripple through every sector—transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, and retail. When fuel becomes scarce rather than merely expensive, prices surge quickly, creating broader economic instability.
Fuel shortages is now the threat but the only thing the Marcos Jr. administration has done to weather the crisis is to approve the abolition of the excise taxes on fuel. Unfortunately, that will take at least a month, and by the time the law is implemented, there won’t be any fuel to be bought.
So, in this crisis, what should we do? There is an old saying attributed to the late British politician Benjamin Disraeli which we may consider as our guiding principle during these stormy days: “Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.”
Sensible and responsive. And it does not tell us to panic or hoard the supplies we need. It simply advises us for preparedness.
In my own household, we maintain a modest buffer of essential supplies which will allow my family to ride out several weeks of supply disruption without anxiety. The objective here is to ensure that a household could function normally for three to four weeks, even if supply deliveries slowed or stopped temporarily.
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