By Tracy Cabrera
The El Niño phenomenon may start developing in July this year and continue onwards by August to October as warmer temperatures are forecasted to prevail, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
In an announcement, PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis disclosed that since they started monitoring the potential development of El Niño in December last year, they have seen the “increasing probability of getting it this year—at least by the August-September-October season.”
Solis, however, clarified that the early impact of the developing El Niño will not be reflected yet as warmer temperatures or a dry spell but rather as an increase in rainfall or an ‘intense’ habagat season instead.
“During El Niño, it doesn’t always mean drought. El Niño also means that the Western Luzon area, which we call the Type 1 climate during the habagat season, experiences intense rainfall. Our countrymen in Western Luzon need to be prepared that when El Niño arrives, there will be heavy rain and floods during the habagat season,” she explained.
“And then after the habagat season, we will experience a lack of rainwater, which could lead to a dry spell or drought,” she predicted while adding that if the phenomenon persists, the worst-case scenario—based on Pagasa’s historical record—is that areas in Luzon could already experience below-normal rainfall as early as the last quarter of 2026.
Likewise, in noting warmer temperatures that are possible in 2027, Solis mentioned that various parts of the country may still experience hot and humid weather this summer because the northeast monsoon season, or the cool wind amihan, is already showing signs of ending.
“The intense or warmer temperatures expected with the imminent El Niño could persist only during the 2027 dry season. If this El Niño prolongs this year, it may impact our hot temperatures next year,” she further said.
In addition, Solis also cited that the heat index in 2027 may be comparable to the ‘record-breaking’ heat indices reported in 2024. However, she emphasized that the predicted weather pattern may still change depending on whether El Niño persists:
“Right now, we haven’t seen its full strength yet, or whether it will last longer or intensify. What we see is a high possibility of an El Niño this year, August-September-October season,” she enthused even as she advised the public to focus first on preparing for the possibility of heavy rain during this year’s habagat season, caused by the developing El Niño.
