THE center of Severe Tropical Storm KARDING was estimated based on all available data at 660 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan or 595 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (16.0°N, 127.7°E)
Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 125 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa
Present Movement
West Southwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 250 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.2
=>Warning lead time: 24 hours
=>Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon
The southeastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue), the northern portion of Aurora (Dinalungan, Casiguran, Dilasag), and Pollilo Islands
TCWS No.1
=>Warning lead time: 36 hours
=>Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon
The southern portion of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Iguig, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Solana, Tuao, Piat, Amulung, Rizal), the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner), Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, Banna, City of Batac, Currimao, Paoay, Marcos), Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, the rest of Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Bulacan, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, the northern and central portions of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Lopez, Guinayangan, Gumaca, Pitogo, Unisan, Agdangan, Padre Burgos, Pagbilao, City of Tayabas, Lucban, Sampaloc, Mauban, Atimonan, Plaridel, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Calauag, Lucena City, General Nakar, Real, Infanta), Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, the northern portion of Batangas (Malvar, Balete, City of Tanauan, Santo Tomas, Talisay, Laurel), Camarines Norte, northern and eastern portions of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot, Siruma, Tinambac, Goa, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion, San Jose), and the northern portion of Catanduanes (Pandan, Caramoran, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, Viga, Gigmoto)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• Tonight through tomorrow early morning: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, the northern portion of Aurora, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.
• Rest of tomorrow through Monday early morning:
o Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over the southern portion of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, and the northern portion of Zambales.
o Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over the rest of Central Luzon.
o Moderate to heavy rains over Cagayan, Ilocos Provinces, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, and the rest of Isabela and Cordillera Administrative Region.
• Under these conditions, scattered flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
• Due to the Southwest Monsoon partly influenced by KARDING, occasional rains are also possible beginning today or tomorrow over most of Southern Luzon and Visayas, especially over their western sections. As such, the issuance of Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.
Severe Winds
• Winds may reach gale-force in strength in any of the areas where Wind Signal no.2 is hoisted throughout the passage of KARDING. Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 1 is currently in effect.
• Per latest track and intensity forecast, the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 4.
• A preceding northeasterlies and the approaching severe tropical storm may bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the seaboards of Northern Luzon today. Sea conditions is forecast to worsen tomorrow, with the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon experiencing rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 6.5 m). A marine gale warning may be issued for these coastal waters within the day (at the earliest).
• The aforementioned conditions are risky for most types of seacrafts. Mariners are advised to monitor for updates, take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions during the said period.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Severe Tropical Storm KARDING is forecast to track generally west southwestward or westward while gradually accelerating towards the east coast of Aurora or Isabela, where it is likely to make landfall tomorrow morning or afternoon. After crossing Central or Northern Luzon, the tropical cyclone is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow late evening or Monday early morning. KARDING will then continue tracking westward over the West Philippine Sea for the remainder of the forecast period.
• KARDING intensified into severe tropical storm at 8:00 AM today. This tropical cyclone is forecast to intensify into typhoon prior to landfall over Central or Northern Luzon. While it is likely for this tropical cyclone to slightly weaken due to land interaction during its traverse over Northern and Central Luzon, it is highly likely that KARDING will remain a typhoon while crossing the landmass.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
