INDIA’s rice export ban, Vietnam’s move to halve its exports, typhoons like Egay, and the scuttling of the Ukraine grain deal are “the quadruple whammy” that will hurt the Philippines – the world’s 2nd and 6th biggest rice and wheat importer.
“Ito ang suntok sa sikmura na dapat paghandaan nating lahat. These developments are the sound of empty pots clanging,” Deputy Speaker Ralph Recto said.
President Marcos’s warning that rice prices could go up “is refreshing honesty of telling truth to the people that should spur a whole-of-nation action on how to meet the crisis ahead.”
Among measures experts are suggesting is to ramp up production “of rice and substitute crops” in areas like Mindanao, which are not on the usual typhoon path, Recto said.
Recto said flooding caused by typhoons Egay and Falcon would impact rice and corn supply as the three regions affected – Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon – account for 44 percent of national rice production and 79 percent of corn.
“These are agricultural powerhouses that not only serve as our grain granary but a major supplier of poultry, pork and other livestock,” he said.
However, the easy solution of importation when local production dips “is not as straightforward anymore due to convulsions in the world market.”
“Hindi na madaling umorder ng unli rice sa mundo. Ang binibitawan lang ng ibang bansa ay ang kanilang surplus production. Priority nila ang local demand. And this is where grains nationalism comes in. Kasi kung walang bigas sa mesa, mag-aalsa ang masa,” he said.
India, the number one rice exporter with 40 percent world market share, has imposed a ban on the export of non-Basmati rice.
“You don’t need a Nobel to sagely predict that it will have a ripple effect on all grain prices considering the big hole it will cause,” Recto said.
But what could hit us “directly and painfully,” Recto warned, is Vietnam’s decision to slash its rice exports a year to 4 million tons by 2030 from 7.1 million tons in 2022.
“Bagama’t hindi pa alam ang export ceiling nila for 2024, maraming bansa ang nagkukumahog na para maka-reserba sa quota nila,” Recto said.
The Philippines, he said, sourced 2.5 million metric tons, or 85 percent, of its rice imports from Vietnam in 2021, “kaya nga ang masakit na biro ay Vietnam daw ang biggest rice producing province ng Pilipinas.”
“But the flipside is, can we leverage our being No. 1 customer into a favored recipient status? Do we have that diplomatic gravitas?” Recto said.
Even the failure to free embargoed Ukraine wheat, after Russia bombed grain stores in Ukraine and pulled out of a deal that would have allowed safe passage of food exports through the Black Sea, “will shrink Pinoy pan de sal sizes while boosting its price.”
“Ang hindi alam ng karamihan ay hindi lang tayo champion rice importer, pero 6th placer din tayo sa pag-angkat ng wheat, kasi nga naman noodles na ang ating pambansang pagkain,” Recto said.
Recto said the country is about 81 percent rice self-sufficient.
One “interesting data” that Recto discovered is the jump in rice utilization.
“If you look at 2022 rice utilization data, it was 135 kilos per capita for that year, from 118 kilos per Pinoy pre-pandemic. Ano nga ba ang dahilan nito?” Recto said.
