ALBAY Representative Joey Salceda, a known economic expert, has expressed confidence that the Philippines will achieve its full-year inflation target of 2-4 percent, citing the latest October inflation report.
The October inflation figure remains at the low end of the target range, while the 10-month average remains at 3.3 percent.
Salceda highlighted the positive impact of President Marcos’s policy of reducing rice tariffs by more than half, noting that it has helped keep prices low for consumers while maintaining high farmgate prices for farmers.
Farmgate prices have increased by 32 percent this year, while well-milled rice prices have only grown by 27.17 percent, suggesting that the tariff reduction has contributed to the difference.
While year-on-year rice price inflation remains a concern, Salceda pointed out that month-on-month prices are declining for all cereals, including rice, corn, and wheat products. He also noted encouraging signs in meat prices, which have slowed to 3.6 percent inflation year-on-year and have experienced negative inflation month-on-month.
Salceda anticipates the full impact of India’s lifting of rice export bans in early October to be felt more significantly in November, which will help mitigate potential price spikes due to higher December demand and the effects of recent typhoons.
He also noted the continued decline in poultry meat prices, which have dropped by as much as 27 pesos from last month, and expects current low-price levels to persist before picking up around the second week of December. Fish prices remain stable, with -0.4 percent year-on-year inflation. However, high corn prices are expected to limit further significant declines in meat prices.
Overall, Salceda remains optimistic about the October inflation figures, seeing no major red flags. He believes that the global trade regime and local prices have adjusted to the shocks of 2022 and 2023, and that the major determinants of inflation remain rice and corn. He emphasizes that any future structural price reductions will require addressing fundamental issues such as yield, input costs, logistics costs, and post-harvest losses.
