LOCAL health experts are reminding the public to continue observing minimum health safety protocols, particularly the wearing of face masks, because the worst is not yet over ang the reproduction rate of Covid-19 has shown a marked increase even as the number of cases multiplied by about a fifth in the National Capital Region (NCR) a week after the May 9 elections.
The reproduction rate, which gauges the capacity of the coronavirus to spread, rose in Metro Manila to the ‘moderate risk’ level, according to the independent monitoring group OCTA Research. The Covid reproduction number in the NCR was pegged at 0.90 from May 13 to May 19, up from the ‘low risk’ level of 0.76 from May 6 to May 12.
“At this rate, a confirmed Covid-19 case may infect one other individual,” OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David cited while disclosing that the seven-day average of new infections also climbed by 19 percent to 71 cases during the same period from 59 cases in the previous week.
“But overall, Metro Manila remained at low risk for Covid-19 as other indicators, namely, average daily attack rate, positivity rate and health-care utilization, either remained unchanged or did not indicate enough significant movement to raise the region to a higher risk level,” David quickly added.
Meanwhile, the Department of Health (DoH) claimed that in Metro Manila’s two-week growth rate, one of the metrics it used in determining any significant rise in infections was based on the -17 percent recorded as of last May 19.
The health agency noted in a statement that Metro Manila was still at ‘minimal risk’, corroborating OCTA’s view that recent increase in cases had not yet made an impact on the situation, including the country’s health-care system.
“This slight increase in cases does not translate into increases in admissions or utilization rates which remain at low risk, ranging from 19 to 23 percent of total and ICU [intensive care unit] beds in the capital region,” the DoH pointed out.
Still, health undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire revealed that cases and hospitalizations may peak at higher levels compared to the Delta and Omicron surges once a variant or sublineage proven to be more transmissible and ‘immune-escaping’ hits the country.
For his part, Dr. Rontgene Solante, a member of the government’s vaccine expert panel, warned that the country may register 500 cases a day should the transmission of the new subvariant hit regions with low vaccination coverage.
Health officials are urging those who are still unvaccinated to get their shots and those who had completed them to get their booster dose to prevent any new surges.
