THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecasts that headline inflation for October 2026 will settle within a range of 7.1 to 8.1 percent, driven mainly by rising costs of domestic fuel, electricity, and transport services.
The central bank noted that upward price pressures are expected to stem from elevated global energy prices and sustained demand, which have kept the cost of power and commuting elevated for Filipino households across the country.
These increases are expected to be partially tempered by more stable prices for key agricultural commodities, including rice, vegetables, meat, and fish. Favorable supply conditions and improved distribution networks have helped keep food costs in check, providing a balancing effect on the overall inflation rate. The BSP emphasized that continued availability of these essential food items will be critical in preventing inflation from accelerating beyond the projected upper end of the range.
Moving forward, the central bank stated it will maintain a vigilant stance and base policy decisions on emerging economic data, particularly trends in inflation and domestic growth. It is also closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as geopolitical tensions there could influence global oil prices and consequently affect the country’s inflation outlook and broader economic performance. The BSP reaffirmed its commitment to using all available policy tools to keep inflation manageable and support sustainable economic expansion.
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